What a Bounty..

Clean Energy, what more can we ask for ..
India should integrate itself with friendly neighbors to counter the China Pakistan combo ...
Clean bundles of hydroelectricity from Nepal, and Gas grid enabled energy from Myanmar via Bangladesh..
Not to mention, these Himalayan rivers are a lifeline for the northern plains of India (and Pakistan).

"All Nepal’s rivers, if tapped, could feasibly produce about 40GW of clean energy"

Simply WOW...

South Asia’s hydro-politics: Water in them hills

Well written ...

Fairness ... LoL

Debt based monetary paradigm

'Debt'.
I think it is justified in only 2 scenarios:

a. When debt allows an entity to acquire an asset which increases productivity in the long run; this can even be investment in an intangible asset, like 'skill set' or 'health'.

b. When debt is able to prevent a breakdown; of institutions, countries, corporations, or household.

In general, any requirement for debt, should be matched against a simple thumb rule; is this driven by a genuine need, or is an aspirational desire fueled initiative.

Also, acquiring debt for high risk investment is an all time NO ...

Fantastic article noting how debt/credit flows from country to country, private to public sector and so on ...

Credit - How it moves

Effectively, Debt is almost like energy .. it can neither be created nor destroyed.. if not serviced through innovation and structural mechanisms for quick re-allotment of capital and risk in economy, debt can only be 'transformed', not destroyed.

Ideals: Realistic or an Aspiration led Utopian notion ??

Found myself thinking of the difference between 'Doers' and 'Visionaries' for some reason after reading this article.

One lays the road-map ... Another walks down that road.

'Case for Low Idea;s' by David Brooks

Maybe a person with 'Low Ideals' can get things done more consistently in real world; getting things to move forward.
But the surge of support that emerges from societies cannot come unless there is a person who inspires masses through articulation of 'High Ideals'.

I guess.. both are required 

A Pump War?

Is there a global oil war underway pitting the United States and Saudi Arabia on one side against Russia and Iran on the other?

Pump Wars

The ever going tango of Geopolitics and Economy ..... Always fascinating :)

Matrix: Reloaded

Author : Anky, the 'Sabu' guy.

Now that we are well versed with various asset classes. Lets look at strategies, inter-linkages between various asset classes and how they react on various measures.

So we know when CB(central bank) cuts rates or does easing, risk assets rally. Also, the local currency depreciates. Look at it this way, when CB cuts rate they are basically increasing the money flow in the market. So more INR coming into market means, value of INR should depreciate in short-term(in medium term it may balance again as the demand may increase to cater to the increased supply)

So, lets understand what does weaker currency mean for an economy. The obvious bit here is exporters will benefit ( because they get paid in foreign curncy and thus would get more on simple value terms). E.g. You started exporting weed at $10 for 100grams when 1$=40INR. Now INR weakens due to RBI rate cut and 1$=50INR. So, now for the same 100 grams of weed and at same price like before you would be earning more,10INR more.

So their lies your first strategy too. Lets assume everyday at the end a stock is fairly valued(that means its trading at the price where it fundamentally should). And then RBI cuts rate then exporters will benefit more and should rally or outperform(**again make sure you actively track these events, because most of the times these cuts, etc are priced in early by the market. So by the time the actual rate cut happens exporters had already rallied**)

So any export driven equity name does well during INR weakening. And thus you find IT companies doing well when INR weakened( IT companies clients pay them in foreign currency, so the currency conversion helps them). And this is also the reason why recently you had IT names falling because INR strengthened.

Now you also have geographical exposure for various companies. And any positive development in that region helps those companies. So when you had Japan doing heavy quantitative easing( kinda like easing but here instead of rate cuts, the govt buys securities in the market to infuse cash) Suzuki did well and which indirectly helped Maruti as well and the stock rallied. Its these subtle things that if you are aware of or atleast know about then you can google out and find results and your desired stock to buy ahead of markets.

Another example would be impact from commodities. Now, being a major importer India and a lot of its companies use various commodities which are imported. One bad weather (where the crops are imported from) and if the crops are affected, their prices go higher and that would increase your input costs and thus lower your margins and hence the profitability ( recall equity means you are owner, so something bad and you would also suffer)

So to sum it up: Easing by CB implies INR weaker implies Exporter stocks should rally

Also, Positive development in your geographical region implies your stock will rally

And lastly, Bad weather raises agri or commodity prices implying higher input costs implies lower margins implies lower profitability and thus Equity sells off

Thats why I call it.. Its all interlinked.. One action affects various others in smway or the other.

Word of caution here: The strategies above are all fundamentally true. What you as an investor need to gauge is predict things that are likely to happen in future ( via reading articles, etc and your own learning). At no point these wikl give you assured returns, as I said you need to track stocks well and read about them to understand the price movements and what all factors are priced in. Trust me have patience, market will give you enough opportunities even based on the above 3 strategies to trade well, but choose stocks after reading well about it. Nobody controls the market, but atleast be informed where you are investing.

Financial World... The Matrix.. Or is it??

Author : Anky, the 'Sabu' guy.


No you are not the ONE.. Neither am I .. But here i draw parallelism with matrix because these markets are truly fascinating and inter-linked. And yes the first bit of exploration journey will reveal so much within these markets that you will ask yourself did this world always existed around you or were you asleep.

Lets get down to core points and focus on few assets and inter-linkage of various markets. Also, how actions by central bankers or policy makers impact these assets and markets overall.

Equity: Its simply money raised by company by giving you ownership. If your country, industry or exclusively your company does well then you are bound to make profits. With ownership comes consequences as well like if your company isnt doing well then you would suffer and loose value. Remember this core principle rest of finance and how to analyze shares comes later. Some terms we will look at later editions are Price by earning ratio, leverage ratio, etc.

Bond: Its capital raised by company or govt and in return they agree to pay you annual ( or could be semi-annual) coupon along with repayment of total capital (yeah just lik Loans, but these are tradeable). Yield is the total return expected from the bond. Its calculated incorporating annual coupon and capital repayment at the end.. More such details later

Equities are the more riskier assets and thus have higher returns but can also result in higher losses. Bonds are less risky assets and thus offer less returns. You would be wondering whats the risk in bond. The risk is if the company or govt whose bond you have bought fails to pay you coupon or capital repayment. So you have rating agencies which rate these corporates and govt sovereign rating to give you an idea as to what is the probability that they will repay.

Now lets put some practical case and see how various assets react to it. Today, when central bank cut rates (repo rate or refi rate) they are basically cutting the rate at which they lend money to banks (commercial banks). So in real life if you get loans at lesser rate you would be encouraged to borrow money, similarly is this case commercial banks would borrow more from central bank and thus infusing more money into the markets

Banks then, ideally should, lend out this money to customers and corporates at higher than repo rate and make money. So this leads to more loans, more business projects, more growth, more jobs and more purchasing power.

Now the simple theory is that if you know well ahead that RBI will cut rates then you can go and buy risk assets like equities  becoz this inflow of new cash in the system would spur the businesess and help profitability

Why does RBI cut rates? In order to spur growth. The fear is with rate cut and money infusion into the system its likely to increase inflation and which is bad for economy. So any central bank has to watch mix factors like inflation, growth and unemployment to come to a decision to cut or not.

So can RBI hike rates? Yes. It does that to remove money floating in the system to reduce inflation.

After a lot of hustling and bustling, I gave up. For closure, I wrote.

When bias sits on the pedestal so high,
Ground seems low under the false sky.
Judgement dwindles when victory is nigh,
Intellect wins but the common sense die.


~Hopeful

Aakhir.. Sach me "Ho Na Paaya"

And then, it fell sideways.. yet again.

Just watch this clip... This cult movie keeps on bringing something new to the table every time you revisit it.
That scene from DCH (Respect)

The idea has been in perpetual reckoning.. as long back as I can remember.

We have to meet.. Lets get together..

When the group to plan the meet was ironically named "Ho Na Payega", I had silently said to myself..

"Dude.. Not this time..."

Not to bitch about WHY it fell apart this time, because the reasons were valid. Sadly, they have been valid for quite a while now. I am writing about something else (And I am writing after a really long time)

I don't know about others, but I know WHY I want to meet..

I miss the camaraderie.

Feel like I am getting into a bit of 'Drama Queen' mode. Let me get real. Neither me nor anyone in my group has never really 'talked' about shit. Not consciously, anyways. I don't think boys anywhere are in the habit of doing so. So, let us take a step back and examine the context of today's communication landscape.

I strongly feel in today's lives of constant connectivity, we have lost the art of real communication. Just try engaging face to face a stranger in a light conversation. I am not bad at it, but I know i still feel that tinge in stomach before I begin...

This era of constant connectivity ensures that we share content (mostly articles and jokes). We even discuss ideas and events; politics and sports and economics.

We talk about what is happening around us.. We don't really talk about "Whats happening in our lives", unless to give out tidbits of information... I bought this, I went there.. Or else, to share extreme short "Nuggets of wisdom".

It has big plus, constant contact. But it can never take the place of a real meet....

In the midst of this mind numbing constant access to each other, the non sense doesn't get talked out. We cant share the impromptu chuckle, or the sound of a soul-filling curse thrown at a friend... 

We can't watch an episode of Breaking Bad together, or can't discuss the Politics from House of Cards or engage in long wound discussions about the warring houses in Game of Thrones. We can't share a drink together... We can't be stupid together..

So why is this non sense important? As said before in the post, we as friends never talk important shit per se.. We talk non sense, and then we somehow make sense of that non sense in each other's talk. In moments within that stupid discussion, something profound and meaningful gets said and discussed, sometimes openly sometimes in guise..

I stumbled upon an idea recently.. I tend to presume that when someone has something to say, the person will, so why bother...

And there lies the catch.. those are the very things, peculiar in nature, that need prodding...

I can't imagine me doing it, ever. Because at some level I realize, that this is against my core belief, to leave someone alone if they don't ask for help.

This again reinforces the fact: non nonsensical peripheral babbling is important during a face to face get together.

I recently went on a WhatsApp sabbatical for about 10 days from our group. And then I got through the days, another thought, bit by bit, came to me.. Especially when I was going through the truckload of messages of previous conversations before jumping back in...

People have to try and give it a try.. A push to make the real meet happen. WE have to prioritize it; make time for it, because there will always be other things.

And maybe at some level, stop pretending to ourselves that we want to do something, when perhaps deep inside, we may not really want to..

Now look at the pic below and think..

Do you not want to live this moment every once in a while?

Do you not deserve this?

Remember that the most valuable antiques are dear old friends.
H. Jackson Brown, Jr

Here I go AGAIN !!

Quote:

"Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubblegum.

 The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind; the kind that blindside you at 4pm on some idle Tuesday.

 "

Guys sorry for being old school and not using whatsapp. I am dragging you back to emails . so bear with me :)

I think we people are too much angry these days. Too much argumentative, too much judgemental, taking too much load. pursuing random quests be it in terms of physical, spiritual, intellectual or in any other form.

We are always running. Running to collect wisdom, running to give wisdom, running to earn money, running to spend money, running to save money. We took Steve Jobs too seriously when he said. Stay Hungry , stay foolish. We are hungry for information, hungry for love, hungry for affection, hungry for success, hungry for food (...duh).

We appreciate if we befriend  a bartender, but be cold to juniors in our workplaces. We seek compassion from the owner while visiting a cafe or a bar, but are completely cold towards our employee personal obligations.

Disclaimer: I am not doing any moral policing here.

We keep saying friends are the best relationship. Its because you can choose friends but not family. I think its just a euphemism for a convenient relationship. Friends are one of the most convenient relationship. YOu seek them when you want to chill, you can shove them off whenever you feel like, because you are not bounded with them with any societal law.  Isnt it convenience?

We live in best of the human civilisation time. When a continent is few hours away. Almost Any disease can be cured. You have everything literally at our fingertips.

But we are still mad. I am not talking about some aap supporters talking at the top of their voice  to stop corruption. But the madness in our head which keeps us forcing to constantly whatsapp or facebook or drink every weekend. Abuse our physical and economical state.

This thought come to my mind few days ago. A person who cant keep himself fit, really cant work upon anything. Because keeping yourself fit is the most tangible result you can get with your efforts. There are no doubts about it. everybody knows this that if you workout eat healthy, you will become fit. A fit person looks better, feel better. and if you dont work on you fitness, you will be unfit, have atleast one disease when you are old.So what kind of ignorance is this.  I think every other goal has some probabilistic rate of achievement.. THis is a sure shot goal, still we dont work on it.

Btw that fitness this thing was just an example, not the main agenda of the mail.

If you are getting hang of what I am trying to say do let me know,I will try to elaborate it further then